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Election time and predictions

I have written in my blog before about the difference between municipal elections and national elections.  A lot of people, in particular DA supporters, always see positive signs in the provincial and local elections and then forecast that they will lead to bigger improvements for the DA in the national elections. 

That unfortunately misses the point and that is that a lot of traditional ANC supporters simply don’t bother to vote in smaller elections, but every 5 years when it is time for national elections, they do come out to vote.  A well known attorney in Pretoria wrote to me only 2 years ago saying that the Road Accident Benefit Scheme Bill would never become law because the DA would win the 2019 elections.  I wrote to him then saying that he was basically nuts if he ever thought that was going to happen and I have not heard from him on the subject recently.  I think polls in South Africa are wildly inaccurate, but I don’t see the DA making any gains and I would expect the EFF to make more gains than the DA. That does not mean that they will become the second biggest party in South Africa, but I just think that whatever percentage points they increase their support by will be bigger than the DA increase (or decrease).

I believe that this election is going to be the one that will make a lot of people, who otherwise have thought over the years that maybe in 10 or 15 years’ time the DA could lead, realise that the DA will never lead South Africa.  If their support does not increase in this election or worse, it goes backwards, it is back to the drawing board for the DA and back to the drawing board for opposition parties which may need to consider a new alliance or a new party. I don’t believe that the Democratic Alliance is ever going to gain power in South Africa and I think that this election will be the one that is going to show that the gap between the ANC and the Democratic Alliance is not reducing, but it might even in fact be increasing.  The bottom line is the DA simply has not been able to get much support past its base of largely white voters and it simply cannot ever win in South Africa until it can get past that base.  It also, like a lot of parties around the world, has an incredibly broad base ranging from progressive liberals who fought against apartheid in South Africa to National Party apartheid supporters and it is very hard for a political party to embrace all of those people within the same party and then have a black leader.  I don’t know the internal politics of the DA and I don’t know what problems the leader must face, but I do know that a lot of the people who supported apartheid, that supported the old South Africa are exactly the people that are currently involved in the DA.  The DA for example once stood for opposing capital punishment, but when it became more politically expedient to announce that they should have a referendum on capital punishment, then they did so.  That is not what they stood for when the DA was led by people who had been law professors at Wits University and quite honestly, I think the DA would be better off without the support of all the old die-hard apartheid supporters who should go and vote for their own party – another version of the Conservative Party or the National Party – and have their own 2% or 3% of the seats in Parliament rather than being a part of the DA. 

In any event, I don’t think DA supporters will like what I have written, but I am putting my thoughts down before the election and let’s see what happens – I say their days of increasing percentages are over.

Posted by Michael de Broglio on Monday 06-May-19 Share on Facebook   Tweet It

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Comments

Bianca Taljaard  said:
on Tuesday 21-May-19 07:45 AM
All I want is a better future for SA, wish everyone wanted the same for our country

brumilde  said:
on Tuesday 21-May-19 07:33 AM
Its a shame that lots for the Parties that may be allot better we dont even know about. EFF has to be watched in the future . Dark days for SA

Brenda Du Toit   said:
on Monday 20-May-19 04:45 PM
I must say I am disappointed The DA definitely lost support .I just Hope that things can just get better.

Clare  said:
on Monday 20-May-19 04:38 PM
The Election hard to give predictions, we have to much corruption. People are to scared to change the Votes to other Parties and still keep to the believing the lies. Everyday I just Hope that things can just get better.

Daniella  said:
on Monday 20-May-19 09:43 AM
Election is South Africa is way too difficult to predict- There is too much corruption, people voting more than once, people not voting and then there are the 'wasted' votes and then of course missing ballots.

Bianca N  said:
on Thursday 16-May-19 10:31 AM
This election has been quite disastrous, from the ink being easily to people being arrested for voting more than once. We were hoping for change and although the ANC's percentage have dropped, they are still in charge. This is how it is going to be for another 5 years...

candice  said:
on Wednesday 15-May-19 04:11 PM
we all hoping for a better future and as we predicted Da lost votes along the way .Anc has the majority in this country hopefully in a few years time things change

Joyce  said:
on Tuesday 14-May-19 04:55 PM
I think political parties’ make it difficult for voters to decide and pick one party. It looks like EFF has a stronger skill in recruiting people

Prishani  said:
on Tuesday 14-May-19 04:51 PM
I suppose the one positive to look at is that the ANC has dropped in terms of percentage, the DA with all its internal drama was no doubt going to lose some votes! I think it will take a few years before we actually see change in leadership in our country. It was also shocking to look at the numbers of spoilt votes we had for this election.

Liz  said:
on Tuesday 14-May-19 04:48 PM
The DA definitely lost support, as was predicted in the blog and also which might have been expected. The DA made promises of winning Gauteng, which was so far from reality and the election has definitely not gone their way to say the least. I was astounded at the growth in support for the EFF and VF+ in this election.

Megan  said:
on Tuesday 14-May-19 02:42 PM
Indeed the number of votes would've fluctuated especially with the rise of the EFF and GOOD. I think there is some hope now that the ANC % is dropping, I do hope the parties who are truly do want change, manage to grow during this time in order to push ANC out completely at the next election. As a 1994 individual, all I know is the ANC and change would be great! I guess now we just have to wait for the next one...

Dune  said:
on Tuesday 14-May-19 02:41 PM
My predictions were that the ANC will win my 58% - I wasn't that far off, I knew the DA would loose some votes but I was shocked at how much the EFF has grown.

Jessica M  said:
on Tuesday 14-May-19 12:53 PM
I knew that even with the change in the ANC they were still going to loose support along the way. I also knew the DA would loose support too and that only the EFF would actually pick up more votes. I must say I am disappointed in these elections and don't believe they were actually correct.

Alexis  said:
on Monday 13-May-19 02:08 PM
It will be some time before there is a dramatic change in the outcome of elections. The ANC will always have majority and depending on the voters - it ill be divided amongst the other parties

Mathilda Du Preez  said:
on Monday 13-May-19 02:06 PM
We all are just longing for a better South Africa.
This year not one party stood out, it’s the same thing over and over again, empty promises and not moving forward whatsoever.

Ashleigh  said:
on Monday 13-May-19 09:07 AM
Even though I have little faith in most of the parties, we should give another party atleast a chance in order to see if they will do anything different.

Nikita  said:
on Friday 10-May-19 04:20 PM
They say these were the most important elections since 1994. I agree completely with the policies of the ANC and what they stand for, the problem is that these policies and the power emanating from the ANC is in the wrong hands. If we could weed out the bad apples (which is obviously not going to happen as power will always get to some people) then I really think the ANC can run this country efficiently. However because of the corruption we have no choice but to try our vote on another party hoping that this can bring some change. I will never support the EFF because I think that having them in power will lead to a race war that will kill millions of innocent people.

Victoria  said:
on Friday 10-May-19 08:44 AM
This election was one of the most confusing decisions I have had to make, there is so much wrong with all these parties. It is scary to think that one of these parties will be running our country.

Edwin  said:
on Tuesday 07-May-19 09:42 PM
Anc 58% Eff 12% DA 30% but its all about, do say and do whatever it takes to get votes

Nicolle  said:
on Tuesday 07-May-19 05:16 PM
I believe that it is important to go vote, what happens afterwards is up to the votes tallied and if such votes were not jippoed. The topic of politics should never be discussed freely as people base their own views as well as opinions, and some people are one-minded and or easily defensive. All I can say is that I will go cast my vote tomorrow and see what happens afterwards

sandra  said:
on Tuesday 07-May-19 05:13 PM
I was taught to never trust a politician as well as their promises. The parties always promise, expose themselves more before elections,ie. DA sending one million and one messages and voice automated messages for example, and then it is rather quiet. Promises are never kept by the parties. Let us see what happens. I shall be voting tomorrow afternoon

Thabitha  said:
on Tuesday 07-May-19 04:40 PM
Voting day is the stressful day ever because all these parties are all the same empty promises, when you vote for DA people will tell you about apartheid, vote ANC supporting corruption, vote EFF then we become Zim and wasting vote EFF wins by 1 vote.

Fikile  said:
on Tuesday 07-May-19 01:45 PM
I hate voting because we don't get any change or even embrace the change, it is never easy to go to the voting stations and vote because you keep asking yourself if all you are doing is helping or just killing. One thing is for sure i wont vote for the DA because all they do is point out the problem and never give us a solution, the question is what are they bringing to the table. EFF can also forget my vote all they do is keep promising people change but all they do is keep getting drunk, on ANC i gave up a long time ago because all they do is bring more negativity to our country. It's going to be a challenge voting but we will vote.

Melissa van Tellingen  said:
on Tuesday 07-May-19 09:43 AM
I agree with Lucretia. I'm so sick to put on the TV or Radio and everybody is going on about the elections. Every single party just makes empty promises!

Courtney  said:
on Monday 06-May-19 02:45 PM
This voting always makes me super nervous!!
I just wish we could get better service and have a save country!

patrick  said:
on Monday 06-May-19 12:43 PM
I agree the Anc has a lot of traditional voters who will come out in droves to vote for it. Fast forward this to 20 years, most traditional voters will be gone then maybe we can talk about D.A.

Angelique Jurgens  said:
on Monday 06-May-19 12:24 PM
Alot of people associate the DA with apartheid and many people have the mindset that apartheid will return. I am not a fan of the DA's advertising where they compare to the ANC etc. It's true they will not ever rule but I really believe that another party should be given the opportunity to rule - the corruption is out of hand our taxes are simply being wasted! I think ANC has lost a lot of supporters to the EFF that is for sure!

Henrietta  said:
on Monday 06-May-19 11:54 AM
As much as DA voters wont like this blog it's reality. I also don't ever see the DA win, as much as I think South Africa needs a change it's highly unlikely. This is honestly the first year since I started voting that I don't know who to vote for. They all so corrupt, making promises that will never see the light of day but to get more votes everyone is promising this and that but never delivers. Why make the promise before voting day? Why not show us voters what the parties are made off, that they can deliver their promises. Why promising that the SAPS will be less corrupt when DA wins? Isn't this something that should be done no matter who wins and leads South Africa. A person can go on and on and i guess this is why politics and religion are taboo subjects. People get offensive and defensive angry and urgh I JUST WISH FOR A BETTER SA.

Michelle D  said:
on Monday 06-May-19 11:31 AM
I believe that both the ANC and the DA has lost support. The ANC has been embroiled corruption and while I am confident in Cyril's ability to bring meaningful change to the country, I have lost hope in the ANC as a whole. Even if you support the way the ANC is headed, anything could happen, Cyril could step down or be impeached. The DA has failed to bring any meaningful change in their municipalities and has instead decided to fix the roads in the suburbs and blame the ANC for every problem in South Africa. This seems to be the best year to vote for a party you actually support, instead of just voting for a party because they're going to win anyway or have the best chance of being the leading opposition party.

Natasha  said:
on Monday 06-May-19 10:17 AM
I am just tired of the corruption and bad service we are currently experiencing, but unfortunately don't think this election will change anything.

Lucretia  said:
on Monday 06-May-19 09:51 AM
I have to say, I cannot wait for Wednesday because I am so over these elections and all the b...s.. promises all the parties are making to get the votes. The only thing I have enjoyed is listening to the smaller parties and their outrageous promises that we all know will NEVER come to fruition. I don't really care who is in power as long as the economy grows and corruption decreases. The one thing that does worry me though is, is Cyril Ramaphosa going to stay on if the ANC is elected or, is he just the face of the ANC for now...…..

david  said:
on Monday 06-May-19 07:16 AM
i think the DA are going to be the biggest losers. they are certainly not getting my vote on the national stage, and will begrudgingly be getting my local vote. as soon as someone else learns how to run a city, the DA will lose that vote too.

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Johannesburg based attorney specializing in personal injury matters including Road Accident Fund claims and medical negligence matters. My interests include golf, reading and the internet and the way it is constantly developing. I have a passion for life and a desire for less stress!
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