I follow American politics keenly, and always have, and generally hold out hopes for the Democratic candidate. The latest surveys are showing that Barack Obama’s chances of being re-elected have in fact grown, and those of Mitt Romney are down. The betting sites, particularly following polls, for example that showed on CNBC, that Barack Obama’s lead has now grown to 7%, have also turned in favour of Obama. Whereas on sites like Intrade, at once stage he was trading at a 58% chance of being re-elected, that has increased recently to 65,4%.

Intrade works on the basis that you essentially buy shares to get a payout of $10 each, in various political races or events happening and the market is set by people who are essentially betting with and against you. When the election results is known when that event happens, the market is closed out and for each “share” that you purchased in the winning scenario, you will be paid out $10. So, at the moment, with Obama trading at 65,4%, you pay $6,54 per share whereas you could have had them at $5,80 a week or so ago. I enjoy these sites, because usually when people are forced to put their money down, and not just express a position as to who they would like to win or who they think would win, you get a much more realistic answer and as a result these sites actually predict events far better and more often than tipsters or the so-called experts. It is the wisdom of crowds, and it works pretty well.