Horseracing differs from casinos in that it is really much more of a game of skill and of form. When one is at a casino, the chance of red or black coming up is 50% each time and if there are 36 numbers then each number has an equal chance of coming up. The same cannot be said of horseracing where some horses have little or no chance in every race and all things being equal, with luck in running, the best horse will win.

All things are not equal because where horseracing does become more complex is when handicapping is introduced so as to give all horses an equal chance, largely for betting purposes, so that the better horses carry more weight. The best betting opportunities, from a horseracing point of view, always come in races where a horse has not won before, where all the horses carry equal weight or in an equal weights race, where one horse stands out above the rest and they all carry the same weight. That unfortunately for me was the case in the recent SA Fillies Classic, a R1 million race which was run at Turffontein. The hot favourite in the race was a horse called Cherry on the Top and I told friends and everybody who would listen, that at 8/10, Cherry on the Top was the best bet of the year as far as I was concerned. I had the second favourite in the race, Do You Remember, and I told my friends based on the interviews given by the trainer of Cherry on the Top, as well as the form of that horse, my horse would be beaten by 5 lengths at least by Cherry on the Top. That is precisely what happened in the race, Cherry on the Top romped away to a 5 ½ length victory over my filly Do You Remember and is now eligible for a R1 million bonus if she can repeat the performance on 27 April 2013 in the SA Oaks. I think she will, but what this really does illustrate is that racing, especially at level weights, is fairly predictable, to the extent that I was even able to predict the actual winning distance.

Unfortunately, very few races are run at level weights, and of course there are always going to be factors such as luck and running and dramas that can happen, but in racing, unlike in a casino, all things being equal, the best horse does finish first and the second horse finishes second and it is not just random as to what number or colour comes up. On the other hand when like me you have the 2nd best horse you wouldn’t mind if the better horse carried those extra 6kgs, which she would have to do in a handicap, to give mine a winning chance!