The first thing that people have to remember about the July Handicap, before asking someone if they can win it, is how hard it is to get into the race in the first place! Once you are in it, it is a handicap which means that they have assessed each horse, according to its ability, and the more ability they believe that horse has, the more weight he or she is carrying. In short, you should have a close finish, as you do in most July’s and somebody who gets luck in running, where the right gaps open up at the right time, normally goes on to win the race.

If somebody asks me what my real concern was – I would say that it is well-known to be a very rough race, and with a small filly in the race, the only lady in the race, I hope that she comes out well and not injured. After that, of course I have dreams, and if you have a ticket, you have a chance. You cannot win the July if you are not running in the race and the fact that she is in the July means we have a chance – like all 20 horses do as it is a handicap after all!  Handicaps like this are the exact type of races that professional punters don't bet on - every horse has a chance and with a very short straight the July will often have upset results. Having said that both Pomodoro and Cape Town Noir look very good, have very fast finishes and I would struggle to see how my filly could beat them.

The bookies assess her chance as 25/1 which mathematically means that they believe if the race was to be run 26 times, she would win it once. The fact that I have a 25/1 chance in the July, and it is my first runner in the July ever, means that it is unlikely that she will win, but she certainly does try very hard and I think that all the comments that she has a big heart are very true. If she comes around that bend, close to the lead and makes a quick dart for it, she is going to be very close. She was initially at 14/1 but there has been very little money for her which has seen her drift right out to 25/1.

The victory over Cherry on the Top cost her another two kilograms – if she had not won that race she may not have been in the July, but if she had been she would have been carrying 52 kg and now instead she is carrying 54,5 kg which is more weight than some colts carried who have won million rand races already this season! So, I don’t think she is better than her rating and ideally, when you are looking for the winner of the July, you are looking for a horse you believe is actually better than their rating because that horse, with luck in running, and a decent draw, will then win the race, all things being equal. So I think Do you Remember is certainly going to need her share of luck, and she is up against some very talented horses – and I am not just talking about the favourites – there are horses like Seal who are far better than their odds of 20/1 indicate.  Some of the 3 year old boys undoubtedly should be carrying more weight also.

What I am certainly looking forward to is the massive build-up in the media, the atmosphere in Durban and the crazy nervous tension of the whole day, not to mention the little over 2 minutes when the race is run at 4.20 pm on Saturday in front of a jam-packed, and I mean literally impossible to walk very far very quickly, 50 000 crowd at Greyville Racecourse.  The race is covered on DSTV 239 but the better bet will be to watch it all on SABC 3 from 2:30 on Saturday.