Attorney Michael de Broglio on: South Africa, Law, Politics, Attorneys, Sport, Photography, Technology, Gadgets, Media, Crime, Road Accidents Fund,
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I’ve had quite a few people tell me about how well they expect the DA to do in 2019. I hope that they are right, but I think people get too enthusiastic as a result of the municipal elections. I don’t believe that the turnout of voters is the same when it comes to the national elections and while I expect the DA to improve on their previous national election results, I don’t think they will improve that much on the municipal election results they achieved this year, on an overall percentage basis.
I’ve had people go so far as to tell me that when the DA comes into power in 2019 the RABS Bill will not be put into place and while I love to hear things like that, I do not, for one second, believe that the DA will be in power as soon as 2019. If you ask me for an optimistic scenario for 2019, from a DA perspective, I would imagine at most they will grow 3% to 4% from their current municipal election results of 26,7%, but personally I think that is pushing it somewhat. One should bear in mind in the last national election in 2014 they got 22,2% and so I think about 28/29% would be a more reasonable percentage now – and that’s an optimistic scenario – a very optimistic one in my opinion. They got that 22,2% after the 2011 municipal elections where they received 23,8% of the vote so there is a trend that they do better in the municipal elections and then when the national elections come they don’t improve much, or go backwards on the results in the municipal elections. They are certainly a party with momentum, they are growing, and the areas that they control seem to be far better run than most other municipalities.
A growing threat however will also be the growing popularity of the EFF and their policies are not particularly exciting for anybody who is really serious about the economic future of South Africa. It is so easy to appeal to the disaffected youth, with pipe dreams, when you don’t actually have to rule and put your policies into play, and most of the EFF’s policies, when tested in other countries around the world, particularly in Zimbabwe, have ended in absolute ruin. One hopes that they do not grow too much, even though they will ultimately contribute as well to a weakened ANC.
Posted by Michael de Broglio on Wednesday 05-Oct-16
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Comments
Nikita said:
on Thursday 20-Oct-16 01:58 PM
I suppose we can only be hopeful for a brighter future. I think the only way things are going to change is if people are educated about their votes and their decisions. This is happening slowly but surely.
Nicky said:
on Thursday 20-Oct-16 08:54 AM
I think that the DA's percentage will improve at the 2019 elections -by how much though I don't know. I think that by governing their previously ANC governed provinces better than what the ANC did would also contribute towards this growth. I do however also agree that many of the votes that the ANC lost will probably go the EFF and not only DA or ex-ANC voters will not vote at all-so the unhappiness with the ANC is not a guarantee that all those votes would go to the DA.
Thabitha said:
on Monday 17-Oct-16 03:18 PM
All what South Africans needs is a good change DA must be given a chance
Catherine said:
on Monday 17-Oct-16 02:46 PM
With good leadership, and if Mmusi Maimane continues to be in the helm of DA, I believe the party will go far. With the current political turmoil in the country and all the infighting within the ANC, DA has a real chance of leading come 2019.
Brenda van den Bergh said:
on Monday 17-Oct-16 02:32 PM
The DA are getting a bit stronger and I am quite optimistic that they will increase in numbers in the near future. They may not immediately bounce to the front, but they are really proving in some areas that they are all for change. They have already implemented some things that have brought change and I think once people start to see that the DA means business and actually start to perform as they have promised, they will start to win more votes more rapidly. Although it will take some time, nothing is impossible.
daria said:
on Monday 17-Oct-16 02:07 PM
The DA is gaining more support each day so I really hope 2019 will be the year for them.
Juliet said:
on Monday 17-Oct-16 01:55 PM
I think the DA will come into power but by that time they may be corrupt and so full of members from other parties that they are no longer the DA we all know today. If Trump wins then I can imagine the the influence on this country would be that Julius Malema would be our next president.
Cornelie said:
on Monday 17-Oct-16 01:50 PM
If the DA deliver what they are promising then I do believe that the DA will have a lot more votes in 2019. In some areas you can see a difference already where the DA had the most votes.
Sandra said:
on Monday 17-Oct-16 01:29 PM
I can confidently say that the DAs performance has drastically improved this year from anyother previous years, they are growing strong. We shall see what the 2019 elections bring
Ashleigh said:
on Monday 17-Oct-16 08:50 AM
I hope that the DA can do what it takes with what means they have to make the people in this Country see that we do need the change and it can only be done if they try another party and not continuously follow the same party that's promised and never delivered.
Sinead said:
on Friday 14-Oct-16 04:45 PM
This country's politics are really becoming interesting... I wonder how everything will unfold
Sarah said:
on Wednesday 12-Oct-16 04:37 PM
we will see growth for DA in 2019. This year alone they have grown. They just need to show people what all they can do for Gauteng.
Nicolle said:
on Monday 10-Oct-16 04:35 PM
There once was an old man from Nkandla
Who led all his voters asunder
He thought it was funny to not #PayBackTheMoney
Now the people have spoken! Amandla!
Melissa P said:
on Monday 10-Oct-16 04:17 PM
The DA have done tremendously well in the municipal elections. I don't expect miracles to happen straight away but any steps taken are better than none. Only time will tell but I'm positive of what the DA can do in future.
Zanell said:
on Monday 10-Oct-16 04:14 PM
I have to agree with you, I think it will take a long time for the DA to come into power one day. Would be interesting to see what decisions and changes the DA would make.
tamzyn said:
on Monday 10-Oct-16 04:09 PM
It's promising to see the growth in the recent elections, hopefully its a good sign for the future, but we will have to wait and see.
Sally said:
on Friday 07-Oct-16 03:40 PM
The fact that the DA showed growth in the municipal elections is a good sign that they are growing and that there is a possibility that they might be the ruling party in the near future maybe not in 2019
Helen said:
on Friday 07-Oct-16 09:50 AM
Coming from Communist society and believes, would be difficult for me to judge current situation in South Africa, I was always running away from Ukrainian ideology and Russian ways of running Ukrainian country, and running away I have got after 10 years to same point in South Africa, and ANC culture can be an example from were I was running away. DA is a good start for this country, I think this party will get a lot stronger with the time and will change South Africa for better.
Joyce said:
on Thursday 06-Oct-16 04:35 PM
I think the result of the municipal elections is the sign of the change to the coming results of national elections
Jessica Apfel said:
on Thursday 06-Oct-16 04:08 PM
I think that it may well be a reality - Advocate Thuli Madonsela is currently interviewing Jacob Zuma into the 'state capture' scandal and if she is able to blow that open then I am sure that the ANC will be shook even further. Moreover, the municipal elections were a sterling success, far greater than that anticipated and I honestly believe that the national elections will follow suit. That being said, it remains uncertain what the political climate will be in 2019. We are in such an uncertain politic climate at the moment - with an inevitable downgrade looming, who knows for sure what the elections will yield!
lucretia said:
on Thursday 06-Oct-16 03:56 PM
If the DA can prove themselves in the municipalities they have won in this last municipal election, i believe their voters will grow. People are tired of poor service delivery, lies and empty promises but mainly corruption. I, personally, don't think they will win in 2019 but i do believe they will be a very good opposition. For now that is very important to South Africa.
Daniella said:
on Thursday 06-Oct-16 03:34 PM
DA is change and change is always good, I cant say as yet that the DA is going to do great things but by the looks of Cape town, great things are coming!
Dune said:
on Thursday 06-Oct-16 02:00 PM
The DA still has a long road ahead of them. If only everyone can actually open their eyes and think with their minds. Not always refer to the past and race etc perhaps then this Country can unite as a Nation and start making the right decisions when voting.
Melissa said:
on Thursday 06-Oct-16 09:39 AM
DA won't be able to perform miracles right away. The same happened in the US when President Barack Obama became a President and expected him to turn the whole country around. It does not happen, however, I do believe the DA will make better chances but people should stop believing in fairy tales and trust that "fixing things" will take more than 3-5 years for things to improve
Liesl said:
on Wednesday 05-Oct-16 04:45 PM
I have heard a lot of talk about division in EFF. One can only hope that the DA continues to prove their worth going forward and continues to gain ground
Henrietta said:
on Wednesday 05-Oct-16 04:29 PM
Looking forward to the future where DA is will be the ruling party. We can only hope that it will be in 2019 but like Bianca said only time will tell. I'm not a fan of EFF but have to agree that with them gaining some more votes will definitely bring the figures of ANC down. I just hope that they don't gain more votes than DA.
Natasha said:
on Wednesday 05-Oct-16 01:52 PM
I cannot wait for 2019 its going to be so exciting it was a big shock to see the DA doing so good now imagen in 3 years times
Mathilda said:
on Wednesday 05-Oct-16 12:32 PM
I'm just happy the DA has really improved on the percentage of votes they got in the municipal elections this year and hopefully they will do great in 2019 lets be positive for once
And for the EFF lets hope they stay where they are and people who actually took the time to vote for them realize what they really about
I really hope the DA does amazing things to improve SA this year up until 2019 so the people can see that the only way to a better SA is to vote for the DA
Angelique P said:
on Wednesday 05-Oct-16 09:50 AM
The DA is definitely growing but I agree I dont think they will take over soon. I think it will be great for this country if the DA can take over from the ANC it will make a big difference in this country.
But the ANC are much stronger than the DA.
Maybe the DA makes a big difference and surprise the people. Youll never know.
I just hope more people will vote.
Jessica M said:
on Wednesday 05-Oct-16 08:58 AM
I agree with you, I do not believe that the DA will take over in 2019. It will take a lot longer for them to win this country. However I do wish they would. I love the DA and I do believe they are the best for us. But too many blind people in this world living in the past. But I am however worried about the EFF as they did well in their first run. But hey lets see. And again I say IF YOU DON'T VOTE DON'T MOAN!!! I have begged all my close friends to vote which they did.
Angelique Jurgens said:
on Wednesday 05-Oct-16 08:47 AM
One thing for sure is that while we think the results are predictable, they are not really. You will hear about spoiled votes, corruption 'fake votes' etc. I am excited for 2019 election and hope that from now until then DA makes a huge difference and just hope it impacts the majority of the voters. There are however, still too many with the belief that if DA is in power that apartheid would come back and I just think people need to start take responsibility and start voting another party in power. EFF policies are not going to help this country and besides that they were ANC and everything ANC stands for - they are just lucky to have left before things hit the fan... I am however, still hopeful and will definitely be voting in 2019 elections.It really isn't that far away.
Bianca said:
on Wednesday 05-Oct-16 08:36 AM
Only time will tell and we can just be positive and impressed with the ground that the DA have gained in the municipal elections and focus our eyes on turning up to cast our vote and encourage all of those around us to do the same. Positivity and change are in the pipeline for sure, maybe not as early as the provincial elections but it is coming!
Alexis said:
on Wednesday 05-Oct-16 08:19 AM
All we can do is wait and see. The DA's power is growing, which is good, whether or not they win...... I still only see that coming in possibly the next one. It is nice to see the competition however and I hope it wakes the ANC up to say that we are not blind and we do have a voice
Johannesburg based attorney specializing in personal injury matters including Road Accident Fund claims and medical negligence matters. My interests include golf, reading and the internet and the way it is constantly developing. I have a passion for life and a desire for less stress!
