Attorney Michael de Broglio on: South Africa, Law, Politics, Attorneys, Sport, Photography, Technology, Gadgets, Media, Crime, Road Accidents Fund,
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I am treading on dangerous ground in this blog because 50% of all economists are proved to be wrong each year, if not more, with their predictions and I am about to make one also. I note in particular, when it comes to predicting how the Rand will do, most of the economists in South Africa get it wrong every single year – sometimes dramatically. It is amazing that one can get paid a fancy salary each month for making predictions and that you don’t seem to lose your job when you get it all totally wrong!
I do think however that it is fairly safe to predict that the price of petrol in South Africa will not rise much further than where it is right now, as long as, and there is one exception, the Rand remains relatively stable. One must remember that for much of 2014 petrol was more than R14,00 per litre, touching R14,39 a litre in April 2014 and so it is much lower now then, than we were used to a few years ago.
The reason I say that is although for many years we have all be told about how oil production is going to run out, that peak oil would be achieved in about 2010/2015 and after that the world’s oil will start to run out – and all of that has turned out to be nonsense. More and more oil has been discovered all around the world and some companies do not care very much about the environment and are happy to allow mining and drilling for it and shale gas in America has also reduced their dependence on the Middle East for oil.
Another threat that the oil companies face, if the petrol price, as we call it in South Africa, or gas price, as they call it in other countries, goes up, there are so many car companies that have been producing cars that use petrol more effectively and who would love to see the price of oil go up just so that they can sell more of their hybrid models and their electric cars. In fact, their sales are being hampered by the oil price being so far below some of its previous highs.
People in South Africa don’t really appreciate that the price we are paying relates far more to taxes and to a weakened currency than it does to actual oil prices which are, by and large, extremely low.
If you disagree with me and think that the petrol price will decrease or be much higher this year, then let us have your prediction here, below this blog, as to what the petrol price will be towards the end of 2017?
The petrol price, at the time this blog was written, for unleaded 93 petrol, which is petrol I’ve always used, was R13,09.
Posted by Michael de Broglio on Thursday 09-Feb-17
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Comments
Nicolle said:
on Monday 06-Mar-17 11:22 AM
One of THE most frustrating in this universe is the fact an increase in the Petrol price means an increase in food. However, you would imagine that the food price would drop once the petrol price has dropped again? It doesn't!
The tango with the petrol price is priceless!
Zanell said:
on Wednesday 22-Feb-17 08:43 AM
I really hope we don't have high petrol increases this year, I am actually very lucky because I don't stay too far from work and this really helps me
Cornelie said:
on Wednesday 22-Feb-17 08:26 AM
I get nervouse when the petrol goes up. I do hope the prediction is correct that's why it is better to be in a lift club to help each other out.
Brenda van den Bergh said:
on Friday 17-Feb-17 04:52 PM
I think i am going to agree with your prediction. When i look at the petrol prices when they were over R14.00/litre and what they are now, i think we are looking at a stable petrol price this year. It will go up again but it will come down and stay more or less the same.
Melissa van Tellingen said:
on Friday 17-Feb-17 04:46 PM
The petrol price seems to always go up and hardly ever goes down. It affects us everyday. It's difficult to say what's going to happen in 2017 but hopefully petrol will decrease although I won't get my hopes up. Travelling 80km to work and back on a daily basis without the Pretoria trips can put quite a strain on ones budget.
Liesl said:
on Friday 17-Feb-17 04:41 PM
Where did the good old days go where petrol prices remained stable and you didn't break out in a heavy sweat when the topic was raised on the radio
brumilde said:
on Thursday 16-Feb-17 10:08 AM
If i wasn't so scared of bikes i would buy one. never mind the petrol you save, the time as well traveling. But i agree, the petrol price has been relatively stable last year. no big dramatic flux has happened as was predicted. And i agree most people dont know how much taxes and extras gets added to petrol price
Sarah said:
on Wednesday 15-Feb-17 08:38 AM
The petrol price is is always going up and hardly coming down. When the price goes up everything else goes up as well. I hope it starts to get stable now.
Tersia said:
on Wednesday 15-Feb-17 08:06 AM
According to some of the news that I have read over the last few weeks, it was said that petrol will have more increases than decreases this year. One can only expect as much from our country. I will keep my fingers crossed for the best, but will not get my hopes up yet.
Jolene said:
on Tuesday 14-Feb-17 08:44 AM
I think the petrol price will fluctuate during the year, with our government and their bazar decisions which has a huge influence on the rand will probably be the cause. I have to agree with you and think it will stabilize closer to the end of the year at about R13.00
Dune said:
on Monday 13-Feb-17 10:29 AM
It is so difficult to predict the petrol price especially in this country. It goes up and up and up and will come down once in a while. Hopefully there wont be so many ups this year and lets hope it stabilizes under R14.00 by the end of the year!
Ashleigh said:
on Monday 13-Feb-17 09:15 AM
All I know is that we already starting to feel the affects with Petrol being above R13.00 and really do not know how much more increases we can take in this Country. Its also weird how increases happen in your hardest months and comes down in your easiest. :) Lets hope for a decrease instead.
Lucretia said:
on Monday 13-Feb-17 09:07 AM
I am loathed to say that we may see far higher prices than are being predicted. With number "one" clearly trying to get rid of our minister of finance, we could, if he succeeds, see the rand dropping drastically again. Let's hope he does not put us on the back foot again. We cannot see our petrol skyrocketing again because it fuels, excuse the pun, the increase of everything else and most South Africans are cash strapped already.....
Sinead said:
on Friday 10-Feb-17 03:48 PM
It's so difficult to predict anything in this country really. I just hope we don't have a repeat of that dreaded petrol year! And I really hope it doesn't go higher than R14.00 per litre.
Joyce said:
on Friday 10-Feb-17 03:30 PM
Petrol price not stable goes up and down. My prediction would be R13,49 towards the end of 2017
Zindy said:
on Friday 10-Feb-17 03:25 PM
The petrol price is always fluctuating it is hard to determine where it will be by the end of the year. Every holiday it increases and then decreases a month later.
Juliet said:
on Friday 10-Feb-17 11:22 AM
I predict the petrol price to be R13,60 towards the end of 2017. I predict that the price will go up and down a few times during the year and at the end of it will stabilize just under R14,00 per litre.
Brenda Du Toit said:
on Friday 10-Feb-17 09:17 AM
It is really hard to predict the price of petrol.We will have to wait and see what is going to happen hopefully the petrol will decrease.
Alexis said:
on Friday 10-Feb-17 08:57 AM
I do not follow the petrol price too much as I do not drive. Yes it is a good thing to look at, because if the petrol price goes up, a lot of other things go up. However I do feel that the petrol price will most likely say at this figure, but the decisions made by this country however may change that.....all one can do, is wait and see
Suzanne said:
on Friday 10-Feb-17 08:51 AM
I do hope your prediction is correct - I don't mind it going down of course, but a rising petrol price has an influence on everybody. Traveling to work and back, buying foods that have been transported etc. Holding thumbs for a (mostly) stable petrol price for 2017.
Nikita said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 04:53 PM
Who can forget the unforgiving year of 2014! Those petrol prices were only going up and it had a huge impact on our pockets. Lets hope the petrol prices wont exceed about R13,67 this year.
Nicky said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 04:41 PM
Lets hope that your prediction is right-no more petrol price increases sounds like a good way to go through 2017 .
A petrol price increase or decrease be difficult for me to predict as I think that there are lots of unknown factors to take into account.
Jadine said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 04:36 PM
Considering the effect of our currency on our fuel prices I am not hopeful that we can expect stability or a decrease in the price of petrol. As far as predictions go...I suspect the State of the Nation address will be a useful indicator as to what direction the rand may veer in and whether our pockets will be pinched even further at the pumps. However, my premature guess is that we will once again reach the R14, 00 figure...cringe
Michelle said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 03:40 PM
It is very difficult to make predictions especially if it comes to the prices of petrol etc. I try not to drive around anymore for unnecessary stuff and it really works. I'm sure petrol prices will be increasing more than decrease. But it will be great to have a car running on anything other than petrol.
Mathilda said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 03:31 PM
I’m not going to predict what is going to happen to the petrol price maybe I’ll jinx it lol
Let’s hope it will decrease
Jessica Apfel said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 02:24 PM
Oil remains a prized commodity and though there seems to be more discoveries, the accessibility thereof remains somewhat limited.
With the influx of petrol - it has a tremendous ripple effect on the cost of living!
With our economy is so malable at it is and so it may be the most unexpected thing that leads to a petrol price hike!
Uncertainty looms...
Thabitha said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 02:12 PM
From what is happening to South Africa moving ministers and all that, I wouldn't be surprise to see fuel price increasing again before the end of 2017.
Nina said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 02:02 PM
Definitely not an easy one to predict. I believe it will most likely go up a bit. But lets hope not too much. If I have to guess, I think it will be just under R14 at the end of 2017.
Angelique Jurgens said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 01:59 PM
We are only in the second month of the year and all I can say is the petrol price has gone up both months. I cannot predict as what the petrol price is at the end of the year but I would just assume and take a wild guess and say not more than R14,00.
Helen said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 12:51 PM
I think only miracles from government can stop raising of the fuel price towards the end of 2017. New year started and already prices on fuel have increased by 50 cents per liter, and from then this price did not change. The Rand is becoming weaker again and of course it is all depends on suppliers, if they willing still to supply us fuel with good prices.
Tamaryn said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 12:02 PM
I have to say that I think the price will go up towards the end of 2017. I think there will be a lot of moving and shaking happening politically which does not bode well for the strength of the Rand. If anything, I think we will see plenty of fluctuations in the petrol price, up, down and more frequent in 2017.
Daniella said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 11:37 AM
It is really hard to predict the price of petrol. I would just say that we should hope for the best and hope that the prices will drop
Melissa said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 10:00 AM
The petrol prices change all the time so you can't really predict if it's going up or down, you will just have to wait and see
patrick said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 09:39 AM
its extremely tough to make a reasonable prediction because the strength of the rand is depended on a number of things . these year being a politically heightened year with the ruling party changing leadership, my prediction is that petrol price will go up . there is just too much factions that something dramatic is bound to happen.
Clare said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 09:25 AM
I think that the Country has been given so many predictions that make everyone stress for nothing, How Ever I predict by the end of this year that we will pay about R14.65 a Litter. Prices of Petrol is always increasing. But I hope that it doesn't.
Angelique P said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 09:25 AM
I think it's very difficult to predict the price of petrol because things change all the time. I really hope the price of petrol will be stable the whole year through but you will never know what will happen tomorrow.
Natasha said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 09:20 AM
You will never know how high or how low the petrol is going to go it is out of our control. One of these days petrol is going to be so expensive people are going to start thinking about other ways of getting to work
Bianca said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 09:14 AM
I don't think one can ever predict an increase/decrease in the petrol price and it really is a case of hoping that the Rand will fight and gain grounds for the sake of the petrol price remaining as it is or the price dropping. Unfortunately petrol is a necessity and one cannot go without it so it really is a case of tightening the belt somewhere else or on another "luxuries." I personally think that by the end of the year, we will be paying close to R15.00 per litre.
Henrietta said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 08:57 AM
I don't think it will go up much higher but with our government and surprises we get one will never know. I would like to predict that it will not go up to much higher. Let’s just hope that it won’t rises and we don’t suffer with high petrol prizes this year.
Lourien said:
on Thursday 09-Feb-17 08:26 AM
The petrol price will always go up and down with our government. We can only hope that it either stays the same or goes down. I do hope that more electronic cars will be bought and used which will also bring the petrol price down as the demand will drops which will increase the supply which means that they will have to reduce the price, but this will probably only happen in years to come. They might also charge extra taxes on petrol because it is not "green" which may leave the price high and unchanged.
Johannesburg based attorney specializing in personal injury matters including Road Accident Fund claims and medical negligence matters. My interests include golf, reading and the internet and the way it is constantly developing. I have a passion for life and a desire for less stress!
