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Lies, damned lies and statistics

I am a man of statistics, so I don’t like to criticise them, but there are times when they are highly dubious.  That in particular has been the case with the coronavirus and all of the statistics we hear on a daily basis.  The accuracy of those statistics depends on a whole host of factors such as what percentage of a country’s population has been tested and how deaths are reported.  If a doctor in a small town reports a whole lot of deaths as a result of influenza or pneumonia incorrectly, none of us will ever know what the real death rate from Covid-19 is other than it cannot be less than whatever the statistics indicate. 

We are in the hands of individuals all over different towns, cities, etc and of course many are going to report that people have died of the complications of tuberculosis or of HIV instead of indicating that this was exacerbated by Covid-19.  In the past week New York City alone has added 3,000 more deaths to its death toll, with some organisations included in the death toll and others are not, indicating that although those people were not tested with hindsight they believe that those deaths were from Covid-19. That is quite a liberal approach and it is probably the correct approach, but many countries will find it rather convenient to not take that approach and only include deaths where the person was tested beforehand, found positive and then died.  While that would be a strict approach to follow just by reading those words you have to know that that is not going to be an accurate approach and will result in an under-count on the death toll.  I suspect that that is what is happening in South Africa because if it is happening in countries like the UK and in America, then you can only imagine that it would be happening, probably to a far greater degree, in South Africa.  As it is, despite what President Trump says everywhere, large numbers of people in different States in America have not been able to be tested, and similar reports have come out of the UK. 

Posted by Michael de Broglio on Friday 24-Apr-20 Share on Facebook   Tweet It

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Comments

Daniella  said:
on Tuesday 12-May-20 07:27 AM
I dont think the stats are accurate there are too many contributing factors

Ziyanda  said:
on Monday 11-May-20 09:01 AM
I don't think we will have the accurate stats now because as Bronwyn has indicated some self-isolate and many might have been screened but did not have the symptoms but have the virus.

Bronwyn  said:
on Friday 08-May-20 10:38 AM
We would never have the correct stats most people prefer to isolate at home and some might have the virus and not even know and just treat it as the common flu.

Sinead  said:
on Friday 08-May-20 09:31 AM
The statistics are inaccurate, but I think there are parts of our country that still have no idea about the Virus

Bianca Taljaard  said:
on Friday 08-May-20 08:36 AM
I am sure we are not getting the correct stats, maybe if they were to give us the right numbers people will take the lockdown more serious and stay in their houses.

Prishani  said:
on Thursday 07-May-20 12:03 PM
I think at this stage not all facilities are keeping proper records which will naturally mean that the stats will not be accurate, stats are based on information/data that is collected and if this is not done properly I doubt any of it is correct.

Clare  said:
on Thursday 07-May-20 08:07 AM
I don't believe the stats that are currently being given, i believe there are far more people that have been infected and a lot more deaths, so many people live in areas that are far from doctors are sick and infected but to scared to show themselves they are worried about going to the hospitals lets face it, the service delivery in SA is not accommodating.

Angelique  said:
on Wednesday 06-May-20 11:58 AM
Knowing the true stats is an impossible task. What do the figures really represent? A handful of people who have been able to t3st and t3sted pos1Tive? What about the people that were unable to t3st but going around infecting others without knowing?

Angelique  said:
on Wednesday 06-May-20 11:55 AM
Comment wont post

Chante  said:
on Wednesday 29-Apr-20 03:02 PM
The statistics on this pandemic cannot be trusted fully, as the number of cases each day can be a poor reflection of the number of people who have actually been infected and how many have truly died due to Covid-19.

Brenda Strydom   said:
on Wednesday 29-Apr-20 09:24 AM
I really don't think the statistics in 100% correct. There are far more people out there with the Virus and we don't now it yet.We must just hope and pray that we can get the Cure for this Covid 19

Shristi  said:
on Wednesday 29-Apr-20 09:14 AM
Just last week it came to light that Addington Hopsital in Durban was not truthful about the number of cases they have reported. They are currently in hot water over this. So I'm pretty sure that the statistics are not always correct.

sandra  said:
on Wednesday 29-Apr-20 09:14 AM
I do not think the statistics given in SOuth Africa are true and correct. When we talk about the amount of ventilators needed, deaths and infected, it does not add up, or so this is my opinion.

Nicolle  said:
on Tuesday 28-Apr-20 08:19 PM
I am inclined to agree in terms of the "dubious" statistics! With keeping statistics there comes a responsibility to keep your information, from base up, as accurate as possible. Unfortunately it seems, and as I have witnessed, there comes a laziness, a fudging and inaccuracy with keeping statistics.

Jessica  said:
on Tuesday 28-Apr-20 02:36 PM
I never believe the statistics because no one can always know 100% about everything. Not everyone is forth coming too. So I see them as round about numbers.

Henrietta  said:
on Tuesday 28-Apr-20 11:54 AM
I do not think the stats in South Africa are accurate. Although its extremely interesting to see the numbers at the end of the day. I feel that the numbers currently showing is a lot higher and we can expert a lot worse to come. I just hope we will not go back to stages again after each stage has been lifted

Michelle Smillie  said:
on Tuesday 28-Apr-20 08:31 AM
The statistics will always be incorrect because they do not reflect the asymptomatic people and I cannot see any feasible way for it to include them. However, the statistics are still valuable in determining how the virus spreads and what the contributing factors are, even if only to an extent.

Roxanne  said:
on Tuesday 28-Apr-20 03:32 AM
I think it is hard for them to give an accurate account due to the epidemic,the would rather focus on the the ones that they do have have it and not investigate those that have died if it was from COVID-19 or not.

Joyce  said:
on Friday 24-Apr-20 05:50 PM
It sounds like countries just give any figures about coronavirus statistics, don’t think there will ever be an accurate statistics about Covid 19. Just hope the cure be discovered soon and works.

Alexis  said:
on Friday 24-Apr-20 03:08 PM
I think that the main concern right now is the informal settlements and to make sure that it does not get spread rapidly . Though nothing can be 100% accurate anywhere in any country or continent. One will only serve self and cause disastrous affects if they are not open and honest with the situation. Rather know the reality to tackle it head on, than pretend and it comes back to hurt you more severley after

Claudia B  said:
on Friday 24-Apr-20 02:03 PM
I don't think they will every have the 100% accurate stats of the individuals infected, died or that's not infected anymore. I'm just happy that SA is actually doing something about this and that we have some stats to see and to be updated.

Sujata  said:
on Friday 24-Apr-20 02:03 PM
It certainly is difficult to get accurate statistics for an infection like covid-19 that largely affects those with compromised immunity. We can take into account the current statistics but to also be open-minded that these stats only reflect those infection counts and death counts that are reported. There is a larger number that is not quantified in those stats.

Megan  said:
on Friday 24-Apr-20 12:49 PM
I don't think its easy to get accurate stats of the amount of individuals infected etc with Covid-19 in South Africa, I mean the we can't even track the companies not paying their taxes...

Natasha  said:
on Friday 24-Apr-20 12:12 PM
I think it should be very difficult to get the exact statistics, because what if there is people that stays alone and don't have anyone,how are they going to know if that person died so im sure to keep track is very difficult but it would be nice to have the correct statistics.

Melandre'  said:
on Friday 24-Apr-20 11:48 AM
I agree, Unfortunately our government is known to cut a few corners, and taking into consideration the amount of citizens who are dying from other underlying conditions and other factors that need to be taken into account, it is largely doubtful that we are being given accurate statistics. At least we have an estimate and hopefully soon we will have a cure

Melissa  said:
on Friday 24-Apr-20 11:34 AM
I think its difficult to give exact statistics, at least we are receiving statistics. It's better than nothing. We must just hope and pray that there will be a cure or injection for the virus soon

Dasanya  said:
on Friday 24-Apr-20 09:42 AM
I really don't think we are being given accurate statistics at this point. There are too many factors to be taken into account and with many that have underlying conditions, it is difficult to obtain accurate statistics. It has been said that South Africa has yet to reach its peak which leaves many anxious as to what we are going to experience post lockdown.

Lucretia  said:
on Friday 24-Apr-20 09:02 AM
I am sure anything like this is difficult to keep exact statistics on and we all know that the stats are not correct but, some stats are better than no stats. I would rather have something to go on and maybe triple it than nothing.

Mathilda  said:
on Friday 24-Apr-20 08:55 AM
Hiding the truth in stats in circumstances like this will always come out in the end, as in the case with China where the deaths that occurred at homes were never included in the reported death toll, only those that occurred in hospitals and institutions.

Statistics are very important especially in the circumstances we are in to ensure we are aware of increases in infections in certain areas of a country and to know where extra measures should be brought in to curve the spread.


Karien  said:
on Friday 24-Apr-20 08:38 AM
I agree.

In countries such as South Africa with many citizens with underlying conditions, the stats will be further form the truth.

It is good to hear that the US is taking the approach to adjust the stats accordingly, in order to reflect numbers closer to the truth.

Nikita  said:
on Friday 24-Apr-20 08:13 AM
I think this is definitely the approach South Africa will have to take to save face and not expose our disaster of a health organization. I am very anxious for what's to come when the lock down is ended. Although the numbers seem tolerable now I think the surge we are going to face is going to be frightening.

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Johannesburg based attorney specializing in personal injury matters including Road Accident Fund claims and medical negligence matters. My interests include golf, reading and the internet and the way it is constantly developing. I have a passion for life and a desire for less stress!
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