The Road Ahead: Electric Vehicles, the Road Accident Fund, and the Legal Future – A Look from South Africa Through the Lens of California

The future of the Road Accident Fund (RAF) in South Africa is uncertain — and the rapid shift to electric vehicles (EVs) may only accelerate its financial challenges. As things stand, the RAF is already strained, with the payment of claims often delayed well beyond the promised 180 day timeframe. But looming structural changes in how we fuel our vehicles — and who drives them — could significantly reshape both how the RAF is funded and how often it will be needed.

While EVs currently represent a small share of the South African market, adoption is expected to accelerate over the next 10–15 years. Industry forecasts suggest that by 2040, EVs could make up 30–50% of urban vehicle fleets — especially as commercial operators, public transport systems, and government fleets begin to electrify in response to global environmental pressure and cost incentives.

The RAF is funded almost entirely by levies on petrol and diesel — meaning that every EV on the road bypasses the system financially. As fuel sales decline in line with EV adoption, the RAF will see its revenue base shrink. Unless a new funding model is introduced, such as EV-specific levies, licensing surcharges, or value-added road usage taxes, the RAF’s ability to compensate accident victims could be severely compromised.

This comes at a time when the very nature of road accidents may be changing — fewer in number, but possibly higher in technological complexity and vehicle value.

California offers a valuable case study. It leads the United States in EV adoption, with projections showing that 100% of new car sales will be zero-emission by 2035. But the bigger shift is not just electric — it’s autonomous.

Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS), full self-driving technologies, and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication are rapidly improving road safety. Cars can now communicate with each other, traffic lights, and infrastructure to reduce collisions — especially those caused by human error, which currently account for over 90% of accidents.

Mobile network speeds, already bolstered by 5G, are expected to increase dramatically in the next decade. Experts anticipate sub-millisecond latency with next-generation wireless tech by 2030, making real-time communication between vehicles and infrastructure seamless — and enabling accident-avoidance systems to function more effectively than ever.

The result? Fewer accidents, especially serious ones. By some projections, autonomous and AI-assisted vehicles could reduce traffic fatalities by up to 70% by 2050.  Quite frankly, I think it will be even higher than the estimates.

This transformation will soon begin to affect personal injury attorneys in California. Fewer accidents mean fewer cases — particularly low-impact rear-end and whiplash claims that once formed the backbone of many high-volume practices.

But it’s not the end of personal injury law — it’s a shift.

Liability is moving away from drivers and toward manufacturers, software developers, and infrastructure providers. The legal focus is becoming more complex: AI decision-making errors, sensor failures, software glitches, or communication breakdowns between systems. These cases require deep technical knowledge, expert witnesses, and a litigation strategy more akin to product liability or class-action lawsuits.

Firms that once thrived on volume will have to specialize and evolve — hiring engineers, collaborating with data analysts, and handling fewer but more intricate cases with higher stakes.

South Africa may lag behind California in EV and AV penetration, but the trajectory is likely similar — just on a longer timeline. The shift will eventually reach our roads, legal systems, and public funds.

For the RAF, this means rethinking how road users contribute. For personal injury attorneys, it means preparing for a world with:

• Fewer traditional collision claims
• Increased product liability and tech-based disputes
• The need for multidisciplinary expertise
• New legal frameworks to govern AI and self-driving technologies

The electrification and automation of transport will bring undeniable benefits: cleaner air, safer roads, and more efficient travel. But they also pose existential questions for systems and professions built on the current status quo.

The Road Accident Fund will need a new financial model - one must question if it will even remain - and personal injury attorneys will need a new playbook.

Whether it’s 2040 or 2050, change is coming.