I keep detailed statistics in the firm as to from where our various clients are referred to us or whether they approach us as a result of advertising.  I have been keeping those statistics for about 6 years, and we hit a milestone this past week.  We have now had, from just direct referrals to us in terms of word of mouth and previous clients, R200 million worth of Road Accident Fund claims that have been referred to us.  That is based on the total value of all the estimated claims referred to us over the last 6 years, but it is a very sizeable part of our business and proves, once again, that there is no advertising like word of mouth.  To put it another way, if your results and service are not top of the class, you will not get very much work referred to you irrespective of how much advertising or networking you do. Everything starts with great results and fantastic service and if you cannot deliver that, all the money in the world spent on marketing, advertising or time on networking, is not going to produce anything.  I am terribly proud of the team we have doing the work and I think it is the reason that De Broglio Inc are the leaders when it comes to claims against the Road Accident Fund.

We are looking at quite a big increase in April and that is because not only has the price of fuel gone up overseas, on average for the month, but also because the Rand has gone down. There are two factors that might mitigate against the increase being as high as 80c, excluding the tax increases, and those are that the fuel price is heading down again, even though it has generally been higher most of the month and the Rand has showed some strength in recent days.  The under-recovery on the international market works out at about 57c a litre for 95 unleaded petrol and 23c or so on the exchange rate at the time of me writing this.  That would lead to an automatic increase of about 80c but of course, and that is where the real shock comes in, there will be an extra 50c for the Road Accident Fund from 1 April 2015 and the general fuel levy will increase by 30,5c, so essentially at the moment, and hold your breath, we are heading for a R1,60 increase on 95 unleaded and about R1,55 on 93 unleaded petrol. That means the pump price of the unleaded 95 petrol which is currently R11,27 is going to jump to around R12,87 depending on the fluctuation of the market in the last few days of the month.  That certainly is going to come as a huge shock to everyone, but if we are to be positive, it is at least still below the R14,00 we all got used to paying last year.  You can always find this information at www.cefgroup.co.za/petrol-price/.

I am a great believer in the flu injections, but what has worried me this year has been reports of it being relatively ineffective in America.  The flu injection is based on a number of strains and predictions of the doctors and if they predict the wrong strains that will be common that year, then the flu injection does not really help at that time.  Luckily the authorities are apparently working on this and new strains will be added to the flu injection that will be available in South Africa late in April, to deal with what was in fact the dominant strain of flu in America during their winter.  That is particularly important because they got hit very hard with much nastier strains of flu than in recent years and obviously a virus that deals with those will be of great benefit to anybody who works, the young and of course the elderly, who are always at risk of dying from flu.

Another World Cup, and another defeat. I think our players did their best, even if they were not at their best - I don’t think that their bowling upfront was fantastic.  I certainly think, just as was in the case in Australia. 20 years or so ago, that we were robbed by the rain. Our players really were in a good position to smash New Zealand all over the park, with 12 overs to go, and were suddenly told that the only had 5.  A far higher score, which would have been far harder to chase down was certainly going to be scored, and so we once again got very unlucky with the weather.

We still had our chances, and the bowling upfront to the New Zealand openers was not good enough, with the result that they got smashed all over the park and New Zealand achieved the highest successful run chase in a World Cup knockout match. To make it worse, at the end of the day we lost the match to an all rounder from Johannesburg, who apparently had struggled to make the Transvaal team and had then moved to Griqualand before going to New Zealand.

All credit to him, Grant Elliott, showing that if you are passionate enough about something and you believe in yourself and you keep trying, you will eventually succeed – from Griqualand to Man of the Match for New Zealand in a World Cup semi-final. He is not the first talent that we haven’t recognized on your nurtured properly in South Africa and we have lost talented players to many other countries over the years, and many other sports as well.  He was cool and collected, while everyone else panicked, and he took the game away from us when it finally looked like it was ours.  I don’t feel devastated, I do feel disappointed and I guess it becomes tough to watch the same thing happen every 4 years and to then build up all your hopes again. Our batsmen were fantastic, but if I take out Morkel and Tahir, I can’t say the same for bowlers.  Cool heads in the last few overs may have seen a run out or a catch that could have changed the whole match, but, it was not to be and despite that, I can’t say that I blame them.  I enjoy the description on ESPN cricket “Oh what a night.  We will never forget it…..Vettori squeezing out a Yorker in the for four in the final over, Elliott ending it with a six, the tears of Morkel, the roar of Elliot, what would this World Cup be without this match?” 

The Mall of Africa is the biggest single phase shopping centre being built, and is to open within the next year.  It is obviously being seen as quite a threat to many other malls, particularly with its closing time set to be 9pm and others are already beginning to change their hours.  Tenants at Sandton City and Nelson Mandela Square have for example been told that from 1 April they have to keep their shops open until 8pm whereas until now it has only been 7pm.  Competition does that, but I think it must be quite hard for companies to try and balance the needs of employees as well, because working until 8pm every night is certainly not easy and if you have young children it essentially means you will not see them because they really should be in bed by the time you get home.  On the positive side, the Wallmarts in America are generally open 24 hours a day, so they must look at these suggested 8pm closing times as almost a day off! 

We really had a much drier summer this year than in previous years.  That is just my impression based on what I see, and I have not looked at the actual data.  I appreciate that there are parts of the country that have a drought, but they also often have a drought when other parts of the country receive record rainfall, so that is not necessarily the indicator.  I just find that, with still relatively hot temperatures, grass is dying, the bush is drying up and the leaves on the trees are really beginning to fade and fall.  I really don’t think, with these temperatures, it should be autumn next, and I can only think that it is largely the lack of rain that is leading to everything beginning to look so dry.  If anyone has any of these statistics or has any observations, I would like to hear that. The bottom line is that we have summer weather, but the plants and vegetation are acting as if it is late April.

I had fun doing a typing test the other day.  There are quite a few Internet sites that do them and I came out with the score of 34 words per minute.  That is not too bad, I never did typing at school or University (although I wish I had) and I type with two fingers only.  People who type with two fingers are generally people who don’t know how to touch type, so we spend our time looking at the keyboard, which makes it hard to do well when the test requires you to actually look at the screen and touch type.  

I still think 34 words per minute is pretty fast with two fingers only and I really regret that I have never taken the time to teach myself or go on a course to use all 10 fingers, because I think typing is an essential skill.  I still believe that eventually voice dictation software will surpass it, but that has been a slow route so far and while I still use Dragon Naturally Speaking now and then, and it is pretty accurate, I just find it cumbersome, particularly of course whenever you forget to switch off the microphone and you carry on talking and it types everything all over the document you are working on!  If I have lots of e-mails to go through, where I want to give staff two or three line replies, sometimes I will then hook up the Dragon Naturally Speaking and dictate away, but I don’t find it practical for my letters to clients.  I don’t know whether schools teach typing now, and in some ways it is absolutely outrageous that it used to be a “girl’s subject” and so in this day and age where we all need to type most men are far slower.  I know it has also been regarded as a non-academic subject, but I would regard it as an essential life skill, and have it right up there, just after learning to brush and floss your teeth!  What is your typing speed and do you touch type with 10 fingers – and if so, did you learn it at school?

We have been here before, I have written about it before, and it normally ends with a lost in the quarter finals or the semi-finals.  This time our national team got off to a horrendous start against India, but bounced back with some emphatic results thereafter.  We certainly have some incredible players and AB de Villiers’ performance against the West Indies was something I had never seen before.  I watched cricket for many years, but we simply don’t expect a team like the West Indies, with their strength in bowling, to be completely smashed all around the park.  On statistics I think statisticians have previously said that on the number of World Cups we have been in, where we have been favoured the second or third favourites, we should theoretically have won two or three by now, and of course we have won none, we are certainly due a win.  I am just hoping that this time is the time that we finally do it, because otherwise I think I will be 60 before we actually win a Cricket World Cup.  There is something about those pressure games where they just seem to toss it away, no matter how many of the easy games they win before then, but I am hoping with having that collapse against India already, that they have learnt from it, build on it and proceed.

I was very happy to see the Road Accident Fund being given a 50% increase in the budget.  That will certainly help them with their cash flow crisis that they have now, but in the long-term, if the Road Accident Benefit Scheme comes into effect, the members of the public will be paying for nothing – R1,50/litre for very few benefits will be an outrageous rip-off.  An advocate friend of mine always puts it more bluntly and says it is simply fraud.  

The reason for the current cash flow crisis is no doubt the fact that the 55,000 cases a year that were being settled by the Road Accident Fund was doubled up last year to about 110,000 and despite that only a R5,6 billion shortfall was incurred.  One does not understand why the Road Accident Fund does not settle cases in the order that they came in, the oldest being settled first and instead has settlement drives where they try to settle people’s cases immediately, even though they don’t have the funds to pay them.  It is particularly unfair for those who have their cases in the court process and have waited 3 or 4 years for a trial date to have other people’s cases suddenly being jumped to the front and settled before theirs.  The money though is not going to solve the problems immediately, and especially not if the Road Accident Fund continues on their current settlement drives.  Firstly, according to the CFO of the Road Accident Fund, any increase that they get only effectively hits their bank account in July, so although the public would be paying more for petrol long before then, they are not going to have the money until July.  That probably means that attorneys will be paid about 50% more from the end of July.  If the Road Accident Fund’s figures that they will by then have a R10 billion shortfall are correct, what that will mean is that with the extra amount of R800 million a month, the shortfall will remain until at least December of this year, but if they continue to settle claims at the same rate, the extra money will only cover the monthly shortfall that we’ve had for the last few months of R800 million a month, and not actually reduce the backlog.  

In other words, if the Road Accident Fund continues to settle as many cases as they are right now, in December one will still have the R10 billion shortfall that is currently being projected for July, but you will at least have a more stabilised system where instead of the delay for payment growing each and every month it will remain constant and most firms of attorneys will be able to break even, even if their profitability is certainly adversely affected.  

The other thing that I certainly don’t agree with is the Road Accident Fund’s policy of paying those that are the least badly affected first, and those who are most seriously injured last.  That is the effect of their policy at the moment to pay cases for under R100 000,00 on approximately 60 days and cases for R1 million or more on 180 days.  It is perverse and it actually encourages the lodgement of smaller cases because those who do smaller cases are hardly affected by the cash flow crisis in the Road Accident Fund’s effort to reduce the number of people who are complaining and simply make sure those, who had the worst injuries and are getting the most compensation, are the ones, who are obviously far fewer in number, but bigger in amounts, who have to wait the longest.  It probably makes sense from an accounting and administrative perspective but morally the concept of paying those who are the most injured last is completely bankrupt.  

I have always been an avid reader, and I particularly love newspapers, particularly the New York Times.  I found that many South African newspapers really have deteriorated in quality over the years and there is less and less to read that is not essentially a press release or blurb from some or other company.  In that regard I found an article on MoneyWeb entitled “Here is how bad things are for newspapers” by Hilton Tarrant most interesting.  He illustrated just how badly newspapers have fallen in recent years and continue to plummet.  The Star, for example, which once upon a time sold over 200,000 copies per day, is down to 93,000 a day and The Citizen is doing quite well, because its circulation is only down by 25% in the last 5 years alone!  The Daily Sun has lost 44% during that time, Beeld has lost 43% and The Cape Times is down 33%.  The only thing that does not change is that newspapers put up their advertising rates every year which essentially means if you advertise in a newspaper every year you get less value than the year before – which is probably why I don’t advertise in newspapers at all.  

The article highlights for example The Media 24 Group, who publishes a variety of magazines and show their operating profit last year, on the printed version, that indicates that the newspaper, magazine and book department must be losing about R50 million a year.  It is only a matter of time, if this continues, that we will see far more closures of magazines and newspapers.  They recently announced the closure of Heat magazine, whose circulation is more than half in only 4 years. When you hear about an approximate R50 million loss you must put into perspective that the magazines that this company publishes included almost all the biggest magazines in the country, and yet they are still losing money in that division – that would include Huisgenoot, You, Drum and Move!  Yes, we all know that everybody has moved to the Internet but would you, with your money, invest in a company publishing a newspaper or a magazine? 

I was not surprised that VAT was not put up this year, but I do think that is something we are going to have to look at in future.  VAT is probably the most effective and easiest way for the government to collect tax and it affects the wealthy the most, because they consume the most, whether it is of services, or of goods.  I know that in South Africa it is a political hot potato, and everybody is worried about the Trade Unions, etc, but I really think increasing VAT is far easier, in terms of raising tax, than implementing e-tolls for example.  The other important thing is that many countries that South Africans visit in large numbers, particularly the European countries, already have far higher VAT rates than us – for example in the UK it is 20% and they have a higher estate duty than us.  If a VAT increase of 1% gives the government an extra R15 billion in taxes and if they could actually dedicate some of it to a cause, I think people might accept it more easily – such as we are increasing by 1% and that extra R15 billion a year will go solely into education - the purpose being to completely transform the education system and our country.  There are poor schools where people are taught so badly that a 12 year old boy cannot answer my wife on what 2 x 2 is – because he does not seem to have learnt it at a school on the outskirts of Fourways in Johannesburg.  That is shocking and that is not good for the future of the country and I would rather pay more VAT and sort that out by throwing money at it and the government trying to move tax brackets slowly, only to gain a few extra R100 million. 

I was quite amazed to see the huge impact of the game and hunting industry in South Africa.  Hunting is not something that appeals to me, but it is apparently contributing over R10 billion a year to the economy and employment for over 100,000 people.  The price of animals at auction is quite unbelievable and at the recent game auction of Piet du Toit, a friend advised me of some of the prices – for example a 25% share in a Sable called Tsunami went for R15,5 million meaning that his total value is effectively now R62 million!  I was stunned by these types of figures because I can only imagine the risks from predators, illness, disease, lightning strikes, etc simply destroying a major asset of one.  Black Impala go for more than R1 million each, a red Oryx bull went for R9,5 million and King Wildebeest saw some fetching R13 million for a bull.  It just shows you that there are sometimes huge parts of the economy that one simply does not know anything about and which have very little coverage in the media and that Piet du Toit, who sold his animals for R200 million at the one auction alone must be a very successful man!  

If you see a product review on my blog, there is a good chance that it is a problematic product and that is certainly the case here.  My pool guy, Elmar du Plessis of Splendid Pools, said that this was the way to go in terms of pool cleaners and removed my previous system and put it in.  Since then I had to return it twice to the company that supplied it and it has just gone in for a third time.  I don’t know if the one I have is just a lemon, or if the product is just badly designed, but it continually needs new treads, some of the parts seem to break quite easily, particularly where the pipe attaches to the unit and whatever it is that needs repairing is always not covered under the warranty.  I think it does a good job of cleaning, but I don’t remember, when using a Creepy Crawly, that I ever had to return it to the shop three times within two years, so either I got unlucky and bought a lemon which the company does not want to replace, or it really is not designed robustly enough and does not deal properly with wear and tear.  I found it averaged 2.7 stars out of 5 on an Australian product review site that I found and while many of the problems that they write about have not yet been experienced by me, I certainly relate to this comment which was headed “Poor design” and says, “I’ve had two NX8 and in both cases one of the wheels snapped off from the main chassis.  The connection to the chassis is plastic and is part of the whole casing, therefore it cannot be fixed.  I will never buy another one or recommend such a poorly designed system.”  

There was no doubt, once the Gautrain station was built, that Rosebank would certainly become more popular.  It is amazing to see how many apartment blocks are going up in the area, and Rosebank is going to look dramatically different in 10 years’ time from now.  I suppose that is true of most areas – Randburg looks dramatically different than it did 10 years ago – but not in a positive way.  I was surprised though to see some of the prices of the units that are on sale in Rosebank with a development called The Tyrwhitt having units ranging from R1,9 million to R17 million and another development called The Vantage with units initially sold at      R30 000,00 per square metre and now selling at R35 000,00 per square metre.  Another development called Park Central which will be on the corner of Baker Street in Rosebank is going to have a penthouse for R16 million and the most basic units are going to be R1,75 million.  They claim that R7 billion has been spent on the development of new office buildings and the refurbishment of the mall in Rosebank and another 100,000 square metres of office space is expected to become available in the next 5 years.  Most of the high-end residential units are being sold off plan now, and are expected to be finished in 2017.  That is a lot of development for a small area and it is no wonder that many attorneys choose this central location, between town and Sandton, for their offices and no doubt we will see more attorneys moving into the area.